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Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Friday, U.S. stocks pared gains to close mixed in the last trading day of September as well as the third quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 158 points (-0.47%) to 33,507, the S&P 500 dropped 11 points (-0.27%) to 4,288, while the Nasdaq 100 edged up 12 points (+0.08%) to 14,715.

Stocks posted their biggest monthly drop of 2023 in September, with the S&P 500 losing 4.66%, and the Nasdaq 100 shedding 4.30%.

U.S. data showed that inflation eased further. Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price growth slowed to 3.9% on year in August (vs 3.8% expected, 4.3% in July).

Meanwhile, personal income increased 0.4% on month in August (vs +0.3% expected), and personal spending grew 0.4% (vs +0.6% expected). 

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was steady at 4.575%.

Consumer durables & apparel (+2.52%), automobiles (+1.18%), and semiconductors (+0.51%) stock sectors were the top performers on Friday, while energy (-1.97%), insurance (-1.36%), and health-care equipment & services (-1.18%) sectors underperformed the market.

Tesla (TSLA) rebounded a further 1.56%.

Nike (NKE) jumped 6.68% as the sportswear company's first-quarter earnings exceeded expectations. 

Carnival (CCL) fell 4.99% as the cruise company's fourth-quarter earnings forecast came in lower than expected.

This morning, U.S. stock futures traded higher, as the U.S. Senate passed a last-minute spending bill Saturday night averting a government shutdown.

European stocks closed higher on Friday. The DAX 40 rose 0.41%, the CAC 40 gained 0.26%, and the FTSE 100 edged up 0.08%.

U.S. WTI crude futures dropped $0.80 to $90.88 a barrel.

Gold price sank a further $15 to $1,849 an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index remained relatively stable at 106.19.

EUR/USD added 6 pips to 1.0572. The Eurozone's inflation rate eased to 4.3% on year in September (vs 4.7% expected, 5.2% in August). 

France's inflation rate was stable at 4.9% on year in September (as expected), while producer prices fell 1.3% on year in August (vs -1.4% expected).

Germany's retail sales declined 1.2% on month in August (vs +0.3% expected), and jobless rate remained stable at 5.7% in September (as expected).

USD/JPY increased 10 pips to 149.41.

GBP/USD dipped 2 pips to 1.2201.

AUD/USD edged up 6 pips to 0.6433.

USD/CHF added 3 pips to 0.9153.

USD/CAD jumped 95 pips to 1.3582. Canada's data showed that gross domestic product grew 0.1% on month in August (vs -0.1% expected).

Over the weekend, Bitcoin bounced over 3% to $27,900 after a potential U.S. government shutdown was averted for the moment. 

Crude Oil (WTI)‎ (X3)‎ Intraday: key resistance at 91.70.

Our preference:
Short positions below 91.70 with targets at 90.35 & 89.50 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
Above 91.70 look for further upside with 92.30 & 92.95 as targets.

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

EUR/USD Intraday: expect 1.0530.

Our preference:
Short positions below 1.0585 with targets at 1.0545 & 1.0530 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
Above 1.0585 look for further upside with 1.0600 & 1.0615 as targets.
The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Bitcoin / Dollar intraday: eye 26530

Our pivot point stands at 27350.
Our preference:
Eye 26530.
Alternative scenario:
Above 27350, look for 27660 and 27840.
The RSI is below 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is below its 20 period moving average (27153) but above its 50 period moving average (27098).

Gold Intraday: the downside prevails.

Our preference:
Short positions below 1861.00 with targets at 1840.00 & 1830.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
Above 1861.00 look for further upside with 1867.00 & 1875.00 as targets.


The RSI shows downside momentum.

S&P 500 (CME)‎ (Z3)‎ Intraday: 4383.00 expected.

Our preference:
Long positions above 4314.00 with targets at 4370.00 & 4383.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
Below 4314.00 look for further downside with 4300.00 & 4282.00 as targets.

The RSI calls for a rebound.

Tesla intraday: as long as 246.4 is support look for 257.2

246.4 is our pivot point.
Our preference:
As long as 246.4 is support look for 257.2.
Alternative scenario:
Below 246.4, expect 242.8 and 240.6.


The RSI is above 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The price could retrace. Tesla is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 248.9 and 245.03).

*Disclaimer: The content of this article is for learning purposes only and does not represent the official position of VSTAR, nor can it be used as investment advice.